MispriaANALYTICS
binary markets · crypto · real time

See what the market prices.
Verify who's right.

Mispria continuously compares a quantitative model's probability — the σ-SCOPE engine — against real Up/Down market prices (BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP × 5 min/15 min/1 h), and publicly grades both, night after night: Brier scores, calibration, simulated P&L with confidence intervals.

view the track record →

the extension · real screenshots

The market, face to face with its model — live.
  • Composite spot — corrected median of 5 exchanges (direct WS) and the gap to the resolution feed, tick by tick.
  • Model vs market — Student-t probability recomputed continuously against the CLOB order book (real bid/ask), executable edge in points.
  • Volatility — implied (market price) vs realized (1-min candles), log-return distribution over the horizon.

Chrome extension v3 in private beta (screenshots show the French UI — v4 ships in English on the Web Store). Meanwhile the proof runs on its own: /performance.

Extension: composite spot from 5 exchanges (Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Bybit), corrected median and lead versus the resolution feed
composite spot · 5 exchanges vs resolution feed
Extension: horizon metrics — annualized vs realized volatility (30 min / 2 h / 6 h), price to beat, sigma distance, touch probability
implied vs realized vol · horizon metrics
view the full panel (real capture, BTC window) →Full extension panel: edge, model vs market, multi-exchange spot, distribution, annualized volatility, metrics and settings
Proof

Every window is archived and graded: model probability, market price, official resolution. Good nights and bad nights alike.

Rigor

Simulated buys at the book's real ask, strategies benchmarked against two controls (random and favorite), bootstrap 95% CIs. No cherry-picking.

Honesty

When the model loses, that gets published too. Transparency isn't a marketing claim here — it's the product.